SDG 16 Peace, Justice, and Strong InstitutionsSDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth

Gaza War Jeopardizes Global Sustainability and Climate Goals

Unraveling the Ripple Effects: How the Israel-Hamas Conflict Undermines Global Sustainability and Climate Efforts

In the face of the escalating regional conflicts, Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine, the world witnesses a disturbing derailment of its concerted efforts towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and climate action. The Israel-Hamas war and other armed conflicts wreak havoc on local scales but also cast long shadows over our global aspirations for sustainable development. As we grapple with immediate crisis management, the essential focus on achieving the ambitious targets set for 2030 and beyond is alarmingly diminishing. This article delves into the multifaceted impacts of the Gaza conflict, revealing it contributes to a significant setback in the global quest for sustainable development and climate resilience.

Deterioration in the global level of peace over the last 15 years

Few months before the onset of the Isreal-Hamas war, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) published the latest annual “Global Peace Index 2023“. The report provided a comprehensive overview of the state of global peace revealing impactful insights with significant implications for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The report, which delves into various aspects of global conflict, presents key findings:

Firstly, there has been a staggering 96% increase in global conflict-related deaths, reaching a grim total of 238,000. This figure marks the highest level recorded in the 21st century, highlighting the intensification of conflicts worldwide.

The economic ramifications of violence have witnessed a substantial 17% rise, amounting to an astonishing $17.5 trillion. This economic toll represents a notable 13% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), underscoring the far-reaching impact of conflicts on the world economy.

A concerning trend emerges as conflicts become more internationalized, with the involvement of 91 countries in external conflicts—a significant rise from the 58 countries reported in 2008. This shift underscores the interconnected nature of conflicts on a global scale.

Ukraine stands out as a focal point for deteriorating peacefulness, experiencing a staggering 479% increase in the economic impact of violence. This statistic reflects the acute challenges faced by regions grappling with conflict, with Ukraine serving as a poignant example.

The global displacement crisis persists, with a continuous rise in the number of refugees and internally displaced people. The situation is particularly pronounced in Ukraine, where significant displacement adds to the already complex humanitarian challenges.

Despite the escalation in conflicts, the report notes that several countries have shown improvements in military expenditure. Additionally, the use of drones in conflicts has witnessed a notable rise, reflecting advancements in technology impacting the nature of warfare.

A noteworthy global shift in the distribution of conflicts is evident, with major conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South Asia showing signs of decline. Conversely, conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region have intensified.

The “Global Peace Index 2023” report presents, therefore, a comprehensive and alarming portrait of the state of global peace. The documented trends and figures has already underscored the urgent need for concerted efforts to address the complexities of conflict, emphasizing the critical role of sustainable peace in fostering global development.

The Impact of Gaza War on the Palestinian Economy

The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has been making headlines for months, and its repercussions extend far beyond the immediate conflict zone. One of the most significant and concerning aspects of this conflict is its severe impact on the Palestinian economy. According to a recent report by the World Bank, the Palestinian territories are facing a sharp economic contraction that is likely to persist not only this year but for years to come. In this blog post, we will delve into the key takeaways and the broader implications of this economic crisis.

The Gaza conflict, which has now entered its third month, has brought about devastating consequences. The World Bank’s statement notes that “the loss of life, speed, and extent of damages to fixed assets and reduction in income flows across the Palestinian territories are unparalleled.” These words paint a grim picture of the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the region.

Gaza’s contribution to the overall Palestinian economy, which includes the West Bank, had already shrunk from around 36 percent in 2005 to just 17 percent last year. Gaza’s unemployment rate has soared to around 85 percent due to Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks and its decision to restrict Palestinian workers from the West Bank, leaving nearly 200,000 people jobless. The World Bank’s pre-war forecast of a 3.2 percent increase in the Palestinian economy this year has now turned into a 3.7 percent contraction, with the situation expected to worsen next year.

Impact on Multidimensional Poverty in Gaza

Gaza was already grappling with multidimensional poverty, with 45% of its population experiencing low incomes and limited access to education and basic infrastructure six years ago. However, the conflict has exacerbated this issue. Massive internal displacement, destruction of homes and assets, and a deepening recession have pushed even more Gazans below the poverty line. Children’s access to education has been disrupted, and basic services have become increasingly difficult to access.

The crisis has also led to inflationary pressure and severe shortages of basic goods. Prices in Gaza surged by 12% in October, reflecting pent-up demand for products that were becoming increasingly scarce locally. Food prices saw an average 10% month-on-month increase, while bottled water prices skyrocketed by 75%. The price of petrol increased by nearly 120%, further straining household budgets.

Massive shortages of essential products have severely limited the ability of hundreds of thousands of households to purchase them, regardless of whether they can afford them. The combination of reduced supply and rising prices is taking a heavy toll on household welfare.

The UNDP and ESCWA report titled “The Gaza War: Expected Socio-Economic Impacts on the State of Palestine” highlights the severe economic and developmental consequences of the ongoing war. The report highlights a potential 34% increase in poverty, pushing nearly half a million people into impoverishment as GDP plummets by 8.4%, translating into a loss of US$1.7 billion. The unemployment crisis has been acute, with approximately 390,000 jobs lost, deeply impacting both Gaza and the West Bank. In the Israel-Hamas conflict, 1.9 million people have been internally displaced, and extensive infrastructure damage has been reported, indicating a significant setback in achieving SDGs related to sustainable communities and responsible consumption. The Human Development Index for the State of Palestine could be set back by 11 to 16 years, and in Gaza, by 16 to 19 years, depending on the Israel-Hamas conflict’s intensity and duration.

Education has not been spared either. The destruction of educational facilities and the subsequent displacement of families have disrupted the education of thousands of children, causing a long-term impact on the younger generation.

The Gaza Humanitarian Crisis

The conflict has resulted in the tragic loss of over 18,400 lives in Gaza, with a significant number of casualties being women and children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. The United Nations estimates that 1.9 million out of Gaza’s 2.4 million residents have been displaced by the war, and half of them are children. UN agencies and aid groups have raised concerns about the looming threats of starvation and disease in the Palestinian territory, calling on Israel to increase efforts to protect civilians. The World Bank has announced an additional $20 million in funds for medical care, humanitarian needs, and financing for food vouchers and parcels in Gaza, supplementing the $15 million already delivered. Donor countries and organizations should increase their contributions to support the humanitarian response in the region.

The Gaza Infrastructure Damage

The destruction goes beyond human lives and homes. The World Bank’s analysis reveals that approximately 60 percent of information and communication infrastructure, as well as health and education facilities, have been damaged or destroyed. Seventy percent (70%) of commerce-related infrastructure has been crippled or ruined. Nearly half of all primary, secondary, and tertiary roads have suffered damage or destruction.

Impact on Israel

For Israel, The economic toll of the conflict with Hamas is staggering with reports estimating a financial setback of approximately 200 billion shekels ($51 billion), equivalent to a substantial 10% of Israel’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Half of this considerable cost is ascribed to defense expenditures, with noteworthy allocations directed towards compensating for lost revenue, business disruptions, and rehabilitation efforts.

Beyond the immediate fiscal impact, the Israel-Hamas conflict has triggered negative outlooks, sparking concerns of potential downgrades in Israel’s credit ratings by major financial agencies. The repercussions extend to the financial markets, where Israeli stocks experience a sharp decline, coupled with a significant weakening of the shekel.

On the long run, the economic impact of the Gaza war on Israel is staggering. The country faces the prospect of losing around $400 billion in economic activity over the next decade. This monumental figure raises concerns about the nation’s economic future.

The war’s collateral damage extends to households, resulting in a marked decrease in consumer spending. Sectors such as leisure and entertainment bear the brunt of this economic downturn.

The conflict also disrupts the workforce, with a notable portion, including a significant segment of the tech industry, being called up for reserve duty. This mobilization disrupts various industries and further exacerbates the economic challenges faced by the nation.

The reports underscores the extensive and lasting economic implications of the Israel-Hamas conflict, with repercussions echoing across diverse sectors, painting a somber picture for Israel’s economic landscape in the foreseeable future.

The Socioeconomic Impact of the Gaza War on Neighboring Countries

The Gaza War, a protracted conflict marked by intense violence and suffering, has not only taken a toll on the Palestinian people but is also sending shockwaves across neighboring countries in the Arab States region. Preliminary findings of a new rapid assessment by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) paint a grim picture of the potential socioeconomic downturn that Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan might face if this war persists.

The rapid assessment reveals that human development in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan is poised to regress significantly. If the war continues for three months, initial estimates suggest that an additional 230,000 people in these neighboring countries could fall into poverty by the end of 2023. This alarming trend is primarily due to the aggregated lost Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which may amount to approximately US$10.3 billion or 2.3 percent for these three nations.

To understand the potential regional spillover effects, the assessment draws on lessons learned from previous conflicts in the region, such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 2008-2009 war in Gaza, and the ongoing crisis in Syria since 2011. These effects encompass various aspects, including changes in oil prices, influxes of refugees, pressures on public debt and fiscal space, and disruptions in tourism and trade.

The assessment presents two scenarios for the conflict’s duration: three months and six months. In the latter scenario, where the war prolongs beyond three months, the socioeconomic impacts on neighboring countries are predicted to intensify. The upper-bound estimates project that nearly half a million people could fall into poverty, and the aggregate total GDP loss might reach a staggering US$18 billion or 4 percent for the three countries by 2024.

Impact on Higher Education and Scientific Research

The Israel-Hamas has also a profound impact on the scientific community, research and higher education in the region (“The Israel–Hamas conflict: voices from scientists on the front lines” Nature news, November 16, 2023). Academic activities in Israel and the West Bank have been severely disrupted, with laboratories sitting empty and academic work coming to a halt. The conflict has led to the mobilization of many Israeli researchers as military reservists. on the other side, five out of Gaza’s six main universities have suffered damage to their buildings, impacting research and educational infrastructure.

The war carries long-term ramifications, contributing to generational grievances and significantly affecting human development and education, particularly in Gaza. As a result, the war has disrupted international academic collaborations, leading to the suspension of many projects. Calls for international support have emerged, emphasizing the need for assistance in rebuilding Gaza’s education and research infrastructure.

This sheds light on the profound and multifaceted consequences of the Israel-Hamas conflict on the academic and scientific communities in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank. It underscores broader implications for sustainable development in the region, emphasizing the urgent need for international support in rebuilding educational and research structures in the affected areas.

Global Butterfly Effect : Impact on All of Us

The Israel-Hamas war sent ripples through the global commodity markets. This turbulence comes hot on the heels of disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, raising concerns about a potential “dual shock” that could reverberate across the world.

The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook report provides a ray of hope, suggesting that the global economy is now better equipped to weather an oil-price storm than it was in the tumultuous 1970s. Despite this, the current Middle East conflict has already had some impact, with a modest 6% increase in overall oil prices.

Looking ahead, the report’s baseline forecast paints a picture of oil prices averaging $90 a barrel in the current quarter, with a subsequent decline to $81 a barrel next year as global economic growth slows. A broader perspective reveals a 4.1% drop in overall commodity prices anticipated for the following year, with agricultural and base metal prices also poised to dip in 2024.

The report doesn’t stop at mere predictions; it explores potential scenarios, each with its own degree of disruption to oil supplies and price fluctuations. These scenarios range from a “small disruption,” akin to the Libyan civil war in 2011, to a “medium disruption” on the scale of the Iraq war in 2003, and even a “large disruption” reminiscent of the Arab oil embargo in 1973.

Surprisingly, the current conflict has had only modest impacts on commodity prices, thanks to the world’s improved ability to absorb oil price shocks since the 1970s. Countries worldwide have bolstered their defenses, reducing their reliance on oil and diversifying their energy resources, including renewable sources.

However, vigilance remains crucial. Gold, often seen as a barometer of geopolitical concerns, has already seen an 8% price increase since the conflict began. Developing countries must prepare for potential increases in headline inflation and food insecurity, avoiding trade restrictions, price controls, and subsidies.

Instead, the report advises them to strengthen social safety nets, diversify food sources, and enhance efficiency in food production and trade. In the long term, all nations can bolster their energy security by accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources.

In a world where stability is prized above all, the Middle East conflict serves as a stark reminder of the fragile balance that commodity markets rest upon. The choices made by policymakers in the coming months will play a critical role in determining whether the world can navigate these uncharted waters with resilience and adaptability.

Environmental Deterioration Impact of Conflicts

The environmental consequences of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war are significant and multifaceted. These conflicts have led to substantial environmental degradation, with direct impacts on land, air, and water resources. The destruction of infrastructure and industrial sites, often resulting in hazardous materials spills, has further exacerbated the situation.

In Gaza, the bombing has damaged sewage treatment facilities, leading to water contamination. Similarly, in Ukraine, the destruction of cities and industrial areas has had dire environmental consequences. Air pollution from military operations and the burning of fossil fuels has also increased, contributing to global warming and climate change.

These environmental impacts hinder immediate recovery efforts and pose long-term challenges to sustainable development and climate action initiatives. The destruction of natural habitats and biodiversity loss are concerning outcomes of these conflicts. Moreover, the focus on military expenditure and emergency response diverts resources and attention from critical environmental protection and climate action programs.

Efforts to rebuild and recover in these regions must incorporate environmental considerations to ensure sustainable and resilient development. The need for international cooperation in environmental rehabilitation and climate action is more critical than ever in these conflict-affected areas.

Resource Diversion: From Sustainable Development to Conflict Management

Impact on SDGs and Climate Initiatives

The Israel-Hamas conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war have resulted in a significant diversion of resources. Funds and efforts that could have been channeled towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and climate action are being redirected to address immediate conflict-related needs. This shift has several implications:

  1. Reduced Investment in Sustainable Development: Financial resources that could have been invested in health, education, clean energy, and sustainable infrastructure are now being allocated to military spending and emergency relief. This reallocation affects the progress toward achieving various SDGs, particularly those related to poverty reduction, health, and well-being.
  2. Halted Climate Action Efforts: Climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are taking a backseat. The focus on immediate conflict resolution has overshadowed the long-term imperative of combating climate change. This shift can derail the targets set under the Paris Agreement and other international climate commitments.
  3. Impact on International Aid: Countries and organizations that previously contributed to development aid are now redirecting their support towards humanitarian assistance for conflict-affected regions. This change means lesser funds are available for global development projects and climate action initiatives.
  4. Loss of Human Capital: The human cost of these conflicts extends beyond immediate casualties. The disruption in education and healthcare systems, along with the displacement of populations, means a loss of human capital that is vital for sustainable development.

Implications for Future Development

The diversion of resources towards conflict management poses a significant challenge for future sustainable development and climate action. Realigning global priorities and ensuring that development and climate goals receive adequate attention and funding will be crucial for achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This situation underscores the need for a balanced approach that addresses immediate conflicts while maintaining focus on long-term sustainable development objectives.

Global Response and Cooperation: Navigating Through Conflicts for SDG Achievement

Collaborative Efforts Amidst Conflicts

The global response to recent conflicts like Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine highlights the complexities of international cooperation. The IEA’s Breakthrough Agenda Reports 2022 and 2023 emphasize that without collaboration, the transition to net-zero emissions could be delayed by decades, moving from 2050 to around 2090. Nations worldwide are grappling with the need to address immediate humanitarian crises while sustaining momentum towards SDG attainment and climate action. This situation calls for a multifaceted approach:

  1. Humanitarian Aid and Diplomacy: International organizations and governments actively provide humanitarian aid to conflict zones.
  2. . Diplomatic efforts are also underway to mitigate these conflicts and foster peace, which is vital for the continuation of sustainable development initiatives.
  3. Balancing Immediate Needs with Long-term Goals: The global community faces the challenge of balancing the immediate needs of conflict-affected regions with the long-term goals of sustainable development and climate action. This balance is crucial for ensuring that progress in one area does not lead to setbacks in another.
  4. Reaffirming Commitment to SDGs and Climate Targets: Despite the challenges posed by these conflicts, many countries and international bodies continue to reaffirm their commitment to the SDGs and climate targets. This commitment is evident in various international conferences and summits where sustainable development and climate action remain key agenda items.

Leveraging Global Partnerships for Sustainable Development

The current global scenario underscores the importance of strong and resilient partnerships. Collaborative efforts between countries, international organizations, private sector entities, and civil society are crucial for overcoming the hurdles posed by conflicts. Such partnerships can drive innovation, mobilize resources, and foster a shared commitment to achieving the SDGs and climate targets.

Conclusion: The Path Forward our Common Future

The interplay of conflicts like those in Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine with the global efforts towards achieving the SDGs and addressing climate action is a stark reminder of the interconnected nature of our world and our common future. These conflicts not only have immediate and devastating impacts on human lives and environments but also ripple effects that hinder global progress towards sustainable development. Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach that goes beyond immediate responses to include long-term strategies for peace, resilience, and sustainability. In doing so, the world can move closer to realizing the ambitious goals set for a more equitable and sustainable future.

This article, while providing insights into the complexities of conflicts and their far-reaching impacts, underscores the urgent need for collective action and reinforced global cooperation. In a world where local conflicts can have global consequences, a united approach to problem-solving is more critical than ever.

Author

  • Abderrahim Merzak Ph.D.

    Dr. Merzak, Founding Chairman of the "Territorium Institute" in Ottawa-Ontario, is a visionary leader in innovation, technology transfer, and research for development (R4D). Transitioning from a research scientist, Dr. Merzak is championing the co-creation of territorial socio-technical innovation systems, empowering communities to meet the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement's Net-Zero targets. His group has pioneered online platforms promoting social learning and co-creation of sustainable roadmaps using community scenario planning. Dr. Merzak fervently believes in harnessing collective intelligence, tacit knowledge, and systems thinking to co-design brighter futures on various scales, from local communities to nations. His achievements include catalyzing international partnerships, founding the International e-Gov Forum in Dubai and the International Forum of Local Governments in Morocco, and promoting digital and sustainable projects globally. With managerial experience in a French biotech firm and advisory roles in biotechnology, Dr. Merzak has also orchestrated global B2B events in diverse sectors. Academically, he has served prestigious institutions like Paris-Saclay University and King’s College London. A recipient of numerous accolades, Dr. Merzak has contributed extensively to scientific literature and holds a Ph.D. in molecular and cellular biology of cancer from Paris-Diderot University, alongside other significant academic credentials.

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